Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
