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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still