Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
